Journal cover Journal topic
Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography An international open-access journal on applied statistics
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 3, 33-53, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-3-33-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
 
09 Jun 2017
Estimating trends in the global mean temperature record
Andrew Poppick et al.

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Short summary
We show that ostensibly empirical methods of analyzing trends in the global mean temperature record, which appear to de-emphasize assumptions, can nevertheless produce misleading inferences about trends and associated uncertainty. We illustrate how a simple but physically motivated trend model can provide better-fitting and more broadly applicable results, and show the importance of adequately characterizing internal variability for estimating trend uncertainty.
We show that ostensibly empirical methods of analyzing trends in the global mean temperature...
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